Will Hurricane Lee Impact Moncton, New Brunswick? A Comprehensive Analysis
As Atlantic Canada braces for potential weather disruptions, residents keep an anxious eye on Hurricane Lee's trajectory. Due to its magnitude, the formidable storm christened "Large Lee" has been making headlines for its unpredictable path and potential impacts on the western Atlantic regions.
Forecasting Models Present Divergent Scenarios
Recent GFS (American) and ECMWF (Euro) models show varying predictions on Hurricane Lee's landfall. The GFS model suggests a hit around Bar Harbor, while the Euro model points towards St. Martins. The timeline for this event is projected to be Sunday, either in the morning or afternoon.
Notably, a few other models predict Hurricane Lee's trajectory to be running straight up the Bay of Fundy, meaning areas like Saint John (SJ) might face some of the storm's impacts. However, the exact nature and extent of these impacts remain uncertain.
While weather models provide crucial guidance, it's essential to approach them with caution. Depending solely on a single forecast can be misleading. It's important to remember that as the variables that feed these models change, so can the predicted outcomes. Yet, the silver lining is that the closer the storm approaches, the more accurate these forecasts are.
Over the past few days, there has been a noticeable trend. Observations suggest that the storm has been shifting gradually to the west daily. Hurricane Lee might lean more towards New England than Atlantic Canada if this trend continues. Yet, residents of areas like SJ are advised to expect at least some weather disruptions.
Preparations Are Paramount
Given the looming uncertainties, it would be prudent for residents to undertake preparations. Practical steps include:
- Securing outdoor furniture.
- Clearing yards of potential flying debris.
- Refilling propane tanks.
- Ensuring generators are in working order.
- Stocking up on batteries.
- Keeping a supply of non-perishable food items, especially in anticipation of possible prolonged power outages.
- It might also be an excellent strategy to consume perishable food from the freezer in the upcoming days.
Understanding Hurricane Lee's Strength
Despite the concerns, there's a silver lining. By the time Hurricane Lee reaches the shores of Atlantic Canada, it's anticipated to lose a significant portion of its strength. However, even in its weakened state, communities should be prepared for winds ranging from tropical storm strength (63-118km/h) to category 1 hurricane intensity (119–153km/h). These winds are potent enough to cause noticeable disruptions.
The Path of 'Large Lee'
Over the past Sunday, Hurricane Lee faced challenges such as dry air and wind shear. However, recent observations by crews indicate that the storm is undergoing a regeneration phase, even forming a distinct eye.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) anticipates that Lee will maintain its major hurricane status early in the week before turning northward towards relatively cooler waters. According to the NHC, beaches across the western Atlantic have been warned of hazardous surf and rip currents throughout the week.
It's worth noting that as Lee turns north by midweek, it will not retain its peak strength. Instead, its energy will disperse over a larger region, transforming it into a broader, albeit less intense, storm system. This expansion means that the threat of heavy rainfall, high winds, and potential coastal flooding could span several hundred kilometres from the storm's epicenter.
Conclusion
The precise trajectory of Hurricane Lee remains a matter of speculation, dependent on numerous meteorological variables. As communities watch and wait, the emphasis is on preparedness and staying informed. While the storm's exact impacts on Moncton, New Brunswick, are still uncertain, one thing is clear: caution and preparation are paramount for the safety and well-being of all residents.